Warren Smith wrote: Tue Dec 17, 2024 9:56 am
Ric,
You're right - SCOTUS (and the state supreme courts) have limited dockets, and will select those topics which are most relevant and impactful - especially where Appellate decisions are in conflict.
I wanted to clarify a couple of things. A lot of people think I just make comments willy-nilly when they are pretty well-researched and informed.
So 1) The Institute of Justice is claiming appellate decisions are in conflict. The Supreme Court will only hear 3 different types of cases per SCOTUS's rules of the court, rule 10 (a):
a United States court of appeals has entered a decision in confict with the decision of another United States court of appeals on the same important matter; has decided an important federal question in a way that conficts with a decision by a state court of last resort; or has so far departed from the accepted and usual course of judicial proceedings, or sanctioned such a departure by a lower court, as to call for an exercise of this Court’s supervisory power;
This is the most common type of case they hear and is often called a circuit split. There are 2 other reasons they hear cases within rule 10, plus original jurisdiction cases, but generally speaking, circuit splits are the most common way to get a case in front of SCOTUS. If you want to get in front of SCOTUS, either have something that is really really politically interesting or make a circuit split. When you do both, you have a pretty good shot of the court finally settling it for you.
Since the 2018 decision (National Institute of Family & Life Advocates v. Becerra) when the Supreme Court opened the door to "speech vs conduct," in an abortion case about the regulation of clinics regarding abortion rights stating what state governments could and could not force doctors to do things under their licensing requirements for abortion, its pretty clear this advocacy group saw an opportunity to take advantage of that on a much wider scale. Then, they went on a bender to try and apply the new standards that were created in that case to allow for the deregulation of occupational licenses in general. To try and create new laws outside of the legislative process. They picked the most likely profession to be seen as misunderstood and over-regulated(us), then he went around the United States for 5 years to try and get circuit splits to bring the issue back to the Supreme Court to try and get the Supreme Court to create a new precedent/legal test that allows for the courts to have the authority to deregulate occupational licenses without having to go to the legislature. To blatantly overrule state legislature. The Supreme Court loves that type of crap, and these types of cases that allow them to waive their power stick around because its something completely within their ability to show how powerful they are. They have pretty much completely free reign to define what the First Amendment means and how it gets applied, so anytime they get to use their power in low-impact ways, they love it. It goes back to that federalist paper, its them exercising their ambition on the legislative branches and the states.
In 2020, this group got a big win in the 5th circuit with a case called Vizaline, L.L.C. v. Tracy, with the Mississippi licensing board for surveying. The district court dismissed the case because they thought it was ridiculous. But on appeal, the 5th Circuit claimed that the 2018 SCOTUS decision did open the door on "speech vs conduct" across multiple professions and that the district court should have heard the case. That was all that the attorney and that advocacy group needed. They just needed one circuit to open the door and say SCOTUS was right in that they created a new legal standard in 2018. Then they went around to 2 other circuits and purposely lost to create a circuit split with that 2020 case. That is what has been going on.
In 2021, they went to a relatively centrist state in North Carolina. They chose the most likely thing that needs to be deregulated in our profession because technology is taking over, and we need a better system for drone-created photogrammetry. Then, they challenged it to try and show that surveying licenses were necessarily burdensome with emerging technology. They knew they would probably lose, but it didn't matter whether they won or lost. Either way, they won. They either got 4th circuit to confirm the new law, or they got a circuit split to take it to SCOTUS.
In 2022, it was kind of clear they were going to lose/not get a favorable result in the 4th. So, they initiated an even more ridiculous action in the most liberal state (California) to enhance the perceived circuit split. But instead of choosing something relatively in the center of our profession that should debatably be deregulated, they chose the most obvious end of our profession that they knew they would lose and that they knew would make a circuit split.
So now they have the following going into SCOTUS:
- They claim to apply the SCOTUS-created laws about a conservative-leaning political issue that was made in 2018 when the court was seen as more centrist in these cases. Basically, they are claiming that they are following the intent of SCOTUS from 2018 when everyone else isn't on a political subject that the current justices get political cover in agreeing with because a centrist court made it.
- They then got the most conservative circuit to agree that their interpretation of the law that SCOTUS created in 2018 was correctly applied in 2020.
- They got a state and a circuit that is perceived to be in the center to state that they disagreed with SCOTUS's centrist-made (even though its conservative-leaning) law on something that is plausibly up for deregulation
- They got a state and a circuit that is perceived to be on the left to state that they disagreed with SCOTUS's centrist-made (even though its conservative-leaning) law on something that should almost certainly not be up for deregulation
So basically, they have framed this whole thing as though conservatives are following a centrist-made law on a conservative-leaning issue. While in comparison, the rest of the country disagrees with the court's decisions in 2018 and is not following the precedent SCOTUS made in 2018. As a conservative court, what would you do? Would you like to hear that your precedent and your decisions were not being followed? Especially when they could be considered centrist decisions?
So 2) Now will SCOTUS take this? Its up in the air. They are going to know its impact litigation. They see that stuff all the time on all different types of subjects. They are going to know that its a made up. However, impact litigation works because advocacy groups give SCOTUS coverage with years of precedents like this to allow them to change the law without it seeming super political. (its kind of part of whole facade of the court, they do things that are political and claim they only do it after years of others doing political actions have already occurred, claiming they are just following the intent of the people, that's basically what precedent is) This advocacy group did the necessary work to create the precedent for SCOTUS to take this up. They went out and spent the money to put the precedents on the books for SCOTUS to consider it. If SCOTUS did not seriously consider these cases, they would set a precedent that advocacy groups cannot change the laws like this. SCOTUS wants these types of impact litigation subjects to come up through the courts. (again, this is where some of their power in our system of government comes from) They want people to embolden their power structure compared to the other branches and the states. They will show they are considering this case, and you won't know what will happen until the final decision to make sure people keep feeding these types of impact litigation cases. We can only peer into it and decipher what they think. Anyone who says otherwise is either uninformed or refuses to accept reality. SCOTUS wants these types of cases brought to them. They will always consider them and show they are considering them.
3) In trying to decifer what they are thinking, the most concerning part of this was 2 items;
the first was that outsiders fielded amici in the petition stage. This does happen, but when you combine that with the setup the Institute of Justice was doing over the past 5 years, it is a little concerning because it gives SCOTUS the impression that its not just a single actor that cares about this case. It indicates that there are other advocacy groups that would care enough about the subject that SCOTUS should get involved. Hence, I suggested that someone on the other side file an amicus to confirm that this case is still just a ridiculous notion. You can debate with me about whether or not that would just pop the subject as more intriguing in the eyes of the justices. I think it won't, and I think a good amicus stating how ridiculous and how much this would unsettle current law would have been a good addition as they discussed granting cert. But either way, it was a concerning sign.
The second concerning part was what just happened. They pushed the case discussion on our case for Tictok. They pushed the actual discussion around our case because they knew they had to take up the Tictok case over the next month due to its national importance. And you might say "oh well they did that for everyone" and I checked before I made that last post and they didn't. Ironically one case number away, 24-275 (Donte Parrish, Petitioner v. United States) was on the same path as we were for conference on the 10th. There was also one other that I checked in the 24-300's range, and I cannot remember the exact number. These all followed the same procedures as our case, roughly the same timelines for petitions and replies and they are still on the docket for the 10th even with the tictok case on the books for oral arguments on the 10th. Why? Those cases are almost certainly getting denied. Why did they push ours compared to those other ones? I infer, as I stated, that its because they actually want to consider our case. They want to discuss it. Again, I really think we wanted an amicus in there to have our voice heard as part of that discussion.
Now, there are a couple of other things going on here. 1) This goes in our favor. Unlike some other impact litigation items, there is really nothing here that forces the court to take the case. If SCOTUS doesn't take the case, its not like not acting on this particular case will potentially create all kinds of problems within the circuits. This is a 100% made-up problem of law by the Institute of Justice to allow the conservative justices on the court to implement new laws that are in line with their beliefs. Its not some huge legal issue that only SCOTUS can solve and if they don't solve it, our system of government might start to get all messed up. The 5th didn't make some binding precedent that will filter down to screw up all kinds of other areas of law and cause all kinds of issues of circuit splits. That said, even if they don't take up the case, these precedents are still just sitting out there waiting to be used in the future. That's why the 9th decided on our Crownholm case the way it did. They knew that these guys would use it if they made it some kind of major precedent. The 9th circuit judge who decided the case for us was floated for a SCOTUS seat under past Democratic administrations. She knew what they were doing, and she and the AG did their job right to keep them from using this BS as a major circuit split. That said, this stuff is still floating out there. It will stay floating out there. SCOTUS can take this or not take this to make new laws right now, but unless the Insitute of Justice sets its sights on something else and lets this die, it will be just a matter of time until they do enough of these cases to make enough of a precedent issue between the circuits that SCOTUS will be forced to act. SCOTUS made the problem in 2018. They will eventually need to solve the problem they created in 2018 if the Insitute of Justice makes enough noise about it. Its not just going away.
So 2) Why would they care about surveying like this? Well they don't. They care about abortion. They care about being able to regulate doctors and other professions to bring the reigns in on monopolistic competition. But you can't just directly attack doctors or those larger professions. They have tons and tons of money to fight. If you go after them directly, they will come out right back at you, and they will come out with force. So you attack them from the side. You go to a failing profession like surveying and get the changes you want to be made. You get the precedent on the books. Then when you come after doctors or engineers or whatever, you point to all this stuff you are doing with surveying and say "but you let us do it with surveyors".
So just again, there is more going on here than I think you all know. This is meant to play into a bigger game than most land surveyors understand. Possibly even more than has been briefed within the board. If cert is granted, make sure to make some noise about the true intentions here. Because they do go well beyond surveying. Every profession will end up being affected. Thats the point of this. When I was discussing it with someone, we were kind of debating why they chose to make the broad statements they made in their petition cert. They could have more narrowly defined their petition question and probably had a better shot at getting the case heard by SCOTUS to win the cases that were specifically about surveying. The Institute of Justice chose to keep their question broad; it was a choice. They are going for a big splash that would jump beyond surveying. They want a wide-ranging precedent that goes beyond surveying. That's the point of this. Surveying is just in the crosshairs because it was probably the easiest profession for the Institute of Justice to put in the crosshairs. (again, I kind of have a problem with that and how some people put us in that position, but its a different conversation) But that doesn't mean surveying won't be left holding the bag at the end of the day if this goes the wrong way.
If anything, hopefully, calling out the real strategy here will help others understand the need to fight it. You really do need to fight this case. The more noise that gets made if the cert is granted, the better because the Institute of Justice does not get this done if other professions catch onto what is happening. I think this only really happens if the whole thing flies under the radar, as it is just another minor SCOTUS case about surveying. Its more than that. It has the potential to fundamentally change the trajectory of our society with the advent of AI and occupational licenses. That is what makes it intriguing to everyone outside of surveying. There are speculative avenues this could go down that would get tech involved and limit politicians' ability to regulate AI. It could be big, and it could become the basis for much more wide-ranging implications 10 years from now that are the center of political debates about AI, how AI is taking jobs, and how occupational licenses tie into all that. Just like everything that happens with SCOTUS. Its a much more valid case for SCOTUS to take up than I think a lot of common surveyors realize.
As a reminder, the Institute of Justice filed an amicus in the Tictok case this month, also in the petition stage. (technically, it was a preliminary injunction) They are much more active in other issues than just this one and do this for a living. They brought surveying into their playing field and spent large amounts of time and money to do it. This has been 5 to 7 years in the making. Don't underestimate your adversary. Its their playing field, not yours.
Pretty much everything at the SCOTUS level is about advocacy. You have to advocate on the other side just like the Institute of Justice is doing. The idea that we didn't even try to advocate when it mattered whether or not we advocated? Come on, guys. Get it together. At least claim you chose the strategy you chose for how you were advocating and choosing not to file an amicus. Not just blindly following the government, which has absolutely no place in advocacy. Is it not the job of organizations like the CLSA to advocate? Who is it, then? Who do I need to go get to advocate for me? Do you really expect me to trust the government to advocate on my behalf? As if they don't have their own motives for what they say in their briefs.
Also, I know that the National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra was 5 to 4. But it was basically with the same court that decided Obergefell v. Hodges minus the swap of Scalia for Gorsuch. (a swap of a justice who was probably one of the most far-right for someone who is somewhat right/center) I realistically think it was a court that could have gone either direction on multiple issues until Kennedy retired. You can claim it was not centrist for that 2018 decision, but again, everything at that level is political. Spin what I say here however you want with your own views, this is how I see it trying to be as impartial as I can and only discussing it through a context about surveying. But no one can ever be completely impartial.