Recession Poll: What's Ahead?

[Lee Hixson]

Like everyone I've been keeping my ear to the ground (and looking for a job). Over the weekend I read an article predicting a second recession is around the corner, based primarily on the numbers of people out of work and the fact of shrinking wages. Two-income families--the old status quo--have been reduced to one income, and even that income has shrunk. Spending stagnation. Stagnation = 2nd recession. The article was quite pessimistic.

I'm curious as to what the survey community expects for the rest of this year. Resist the temptation for cheer-lead optimism when you answer; rather, what do you REALLY expect?

[Jim Frame]

I expect a continuation of what I've seen over the past year: slowly increasing business, with occasional dips. I've been getting more work lately from both the private and public sectors, but I've come to expect the upswings to be partially counteracted by periodic downturns.

Of course, just because I expect it doesn't mean it'll come to pass.

.

[LA Stevens]

I expect it to be a slight improvement to staying the same. I was talking with a friend of mine, who is a Bar Pilot for SF Bay, and he stated they are as busy as pre-downturn. He cant believe the amount of cargo ships coming in. On the other hand, I've heard similar predictions about a double dip recession.


It'd be nicer if the majority was export and not import products.

[E_Page]

Have we come out of the past recession? I've heard of and have seen a few signs of improvement, but with local official unemployment over 12%, national official unemployment at over 9%, real unemployment still well over 15%, the CPI at 1.8%.... we have a long way to go.

A handful of people doing almost as well as they were pre-recession is a long way from the broader prosperity we had then.

[land butcher]

I don't see much, if any improvement. My CPA was telling me that big business is sitting on billions because the feds can't set a tax policy so business does not know where to put their money to get the best return. As such the economy is stagnant.

Around Jan there were some ads for architects and some public sector survey jobs, but haven't seen any of that in a couple of months.

The Irvine Co built and sold some homes recently, but they are being very cautious. And some people just have to have a new home in Irvine.

Lots of homes on the market and still at 70%-75% of 2005-08 prices. And the foreclosures continue. A lot of the foreclosure has to do with the Feds selling loans to the big banks at 70 cents on the dollar and guaranteeing them 85 cents on the dollar if they "have" to foreclose. Dollar being the original loan amount.

In the high desert there are still tracts of homes built in the last 10 years that look like ghost towns. Same in outlying Las Vegas.

No new commercial construction at all.

And business' are still leaving CA and the USA. A recent article about Carl's Jr moving to Texas. In TX CJ can build a store for $250K less than in CA and open it in 2-3 months instead of 18-24 months. And In-n-Out just opened it's first store in TX.

[radicalfil]

Recently applied for a Survey Technician with East Bay Regional Parks. Report from the agency that 260 candidates applied for 1 job opportunity that might turn into a permanent position.

[Stephen Johnson]

If we don't make some quite radical changes in Gov't. at both State and Federal Levels, it may well turn into a depression starting in 2013.

[land butcher]

It is a depression, the politico's just don't like the word.

I felt it in 2008 and some say it started in 2007 so we are somewhere in the 3rd to 4th year.

[LS_8750]

Looking for contract work.

Will travel.

Diverse resume combining PE and PLS experience to forensic flood investigations as well as the more typical stuff.


A fellow native Californian buddy of mine working for the local big dog around here is seriously looking at moving out of state. I have a 5 month old boy. I just applied for my Nevada LS, just in case.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. And as said a before on other threads, the land surveyors are playing the lowball games to the detriment of the profession.

I am maintaining integrity however.

[Lee Hixson]

In case anyone's interested, here's the article I mentioned above. Pretty sobering.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1JB6OL.DTL

[land butcher]

"What the Commerce Department didn't say is the pace is picking up. In 2000, 30 percent of GE's business was overseas along with 46 percent of its employees; now, 60 percent of its business is outside the United States, as are 54 percent of its employees. Over the past five years, Oracle added twice as many workers overseas as in this country; 63 percent of its employees now work abroad."

UPS sent 100s of jobs to indonesia late last year and and another dept is going to india this year.

Our jobs going overseas is killing this Country along with almost everything we buy being made outside the USA.

Our industry will remain stagnant or get worse due to the lack of need for housing, shopping centers and commercial sites. Eventually even the "you want fries with that" jobs will be few and far between.

We need to force industry to produce the products we buy here. We cannot continue to buy more than we sell.

[Mojavegreen]

When the recession hit I decided that I need to diversify my survey work. I am currently working on projects that other companies refuse to do or don't care to do. This week is the first week in 3 months that I was able to stay in the office and work on some proposals that are kind of back logged on. It is taking a lot of work to get the work but it is paying off. As for the rest of the year I think the jobs will increase slightly but if things continue the way they are I figure I might be in pre-recession numbers. (Crossing fingers) Then again I might not get another job for the rest of the year. Never know.

As for the low balling it is so hit and miss on stuff. I was low bidder on one project by a lot and then on the next one I wasn't even in the ballpark. It is frustrating to say the least. When I do a proposal I put in it what it is going to take to get it done. If someone can do it for cheaper than have at it and good luck. Just my 0.04

[rpost]

We've seen a fairly substantial increase in business. We specialize in commercial development, and are very diverse in our services, which helps keep our staff busy. I am optimistic that this year will be a good one. We will see.